- January 19, 2019
- Posted by: admin
- Category: Eduction
A market trend is a putative tendency of a financial market to move in a particular direction over time. These trends are classified as secular for long time frames, primary for medium time frames, and secondary lasting short times. Traders identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as a predictable price response of the market at levels of price support and price resistance, varying over time. The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.
Secular market trend
Statues of the two symbolic beasts of finance, the bear and the bull, in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of sequential primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets. In a secular bull market, the prevailing trend is “bullish” or upward moving. The United States stock market was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002. In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is “bearish” or downward moving. An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom.
Secondary market trend
Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction within a primary trend. The duration is a few weeks or a few months. One type of secondary market trend is called a market correction. A correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 20% or so. A correction is a downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market (ex post). Another type of secondary trend is called a bear market rally (or “sucker’s rally”) which consist of a market price increase of 10% to 20%. A bear market rally is an upward movement that is not large enough to be a bull market. Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei 225 has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.
Primary market trend
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market (most sectors) and lasts for a year or more.
In a primary market, companies, governments or public sector institutions can raise funds through bond issues and corporations can raise capital through the sale of new stock through an initial public offering (IPO). This is often done through an investment bank or finance syndicate of securities dealers. The process of selling new shares to investors is called underwriting. Dealers earn a commission that is built into the price of the security offering, though it can be found in the prospectus. Instead of going through underwriters, corporations can make a primary issue or right issue of its debt or stock, which involves the issue by a corporation of its own debt or new stock directly to institutional investors or the public or it can seek additional capital from existing shareholders.
Since the securities are issued directly by the company to its investors, the company receives the money and issues new security certificates to the investors. The primary market plays the crucial function of facilitating the capital formation within the economy. The securities issued at the primary market can be issued in face value, premium value, and at par value.